The Bulgarians who have been exposed to Covid-19 are at least 6-7 times more than the officially announced, mathematician Lachezar Tomov told bTV. With the excessive mortality rate our country is currently No1 in Europe ahead of Hungary and the Czech Republic. The two countries are ahead of us by official mortality, but in Hungary the indicators are real - they register everything, while we do not make a reliable registration because we do not test much.
Accordingly, we have many deceased who have not been registered in the official statistics, but the dynamics of hidden mortality closely follow that of officially deceased from the infection, and in 96-7% of casesit is explained by Covid. 25% of those who died in our country are of working age.
But the infection rate is definitely declining, despite the increasingly lower number of PCR tests at the expense of the proportion of antigen tests, admitted the mathematician, who is among the main opponents of any loosening of measures and has often drawn apocalyptic patterns for the course of the pandemic over the past year. The reproduction number in our country is already below 1.
We do not have Germany's problems with growing morbidity despite the loose measures, because Bulgaria is a relatively sparsely populated country, we do not have this huge domestic traffic as in the West and this is the reason for more lenient measures in Bulgaria leading to a steeper drop in infection. In our country, even the British strain can be contained without strict lockdowns like in England, Tomov pointed out
Since April 2020, public gatherings are banned in Sweden, currently no more than 8 people are allowed to gather at one place, and we continue to talk about a Swedish model, he said. They have higher incidence rate there, but with less mortality thanks to a better health care system. He argued that gatherings at discos here are absolutely unacceptable until we achieve a mass vaccination of the population.
The incubation period with the new variants of the virus becomes a little longer, so two weeks after Easter it will be clear what the effect of the large gathering of people on the holidays is. The hope is in the many who have fallen ill, the bad news is that there is no research in our country. "We don't know how many people have had the virus and especially what immunity they have developed," he commented on the theory of Nikolay Vitanov, but we already have about 35% of the population who encountered the virus or are vaccinated, which is a kind of shield against COVID, and by the end of the month it can grow to 45%. Besides, you saw what is happening in Delhi now, and during the previous wave they had 50% recovered, Tomov expressed his concerns. The Covid-19 victims also become younger.
It is only when about 5 million people are vaccinated that the we can talk about immunity in our country, since the exposure to the virus does not provide lasting and reliable protection. In this respect the elderly should be given priority in vaccination - as they did in England and Israel and there the mortality rate decreased, not like it is done in our country, the pandemic researcher also commented.
The most important thing for curbing the epidemic is the control over the import of infection, which is why Asian countries have dealt with it so successfully -they did not relax the measures, there is quarantine for all arrivals. Therefore, we have to be on alert during the tourist season.
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